Foreign Exchange Reserves
The CBK’s usable foreign exchange reserves remained adequate at USD 9,365 million (5.73 months of import cover). This meets CBK’s statutory requirement to endeavor to maintain at least 4.0-months of import cover, and the EAC region’s convergence criteria of 4.5-months of import cover.
Currency
The Kenyan Shilling depreciated against the Dollar and the Sterling Pound, but strengthened against the Euro. The strengthening of the dollar is attributable to increased dollar demand from importers.
| Week Before | Week After | |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar | 110.49 | 110.72 |
| Euro | 128.38 | 127.90 |
| Sterling Pound | 148.93 | 150.46 |
Liquidity
Money markets remained relatively liquid, supported by government payments which partly offset tax remittances.
Remittance inflows increased in relation to the 4.25 percent cash reserves requirement (CRR). Open market operations remained active.
| Week Before | Week After | |
|---|---|---|
| Interbank rate | 6.71% | 6.35% |
| Interbank volume (billion) | 11.47 | 10.98 |
| Commercial banks’ excess reserves (billion) | 10.60 | 11.80 |
Fixed Income
T-Bills
The T-Bills subscription rate remained under-subscribed. The under-subscription in T-Bills is attributable to a concurrent bond sale with higher yields in the primary market.
| T-Bill | Yield (% Rate) | Subscription Rate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week Before | Week After | Week Before | Week After | |
| Overall | 42.22% | 40.93% | ||
| 91 day | 6.90% | 6.94% | 66.00% | 85.56% |
| 182 day | 7.28% | 7.32% | 53.37% | 39.62% |
| 364 day | 7.95% | 8.03% | 24.39% | 6.95% |
T-Bonds
The bonds market had low demand for the week’s bond offers. Bonds turnover decreased to Kshs 12.57 billion from Kshs 23.05 billion recorded in the previous week.
In the primary bond market, three bonds were reopened: FXD1/2013/15, FXD3/2019/15 and FXD1/2021/25 with fixed coupon rates of 11.25%, 12.34% and 13.92%, and effective tenors of 6.4 years, 12.9 years and 24.7 years respectively. Bids worth Kshs 55.48 billion were received against a target of Kshs 60 billion, representing a performance rate of 92.46%.
In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds increased by an average of 27.8 basis points. Yields on the 10-year Eurobonds for Angola and Ghana also increased.
Equities
NASI, NSE 20 and NSE 25 decreased by 2.99%, 2.22% and 2.97%. Market capitalization also decreased by 3.01% to 2.74 trillion. The performance was driven by losses recorded by large-cap stocks. Top losses were recorded in Diamond Trust Bank Kenya, East African Breweries Limited, Safaricom Plc, NCBA and ABSA Bank Plc which declined by 4.7%, 4.2%, 3.6%, 2.9% and 2.4% respectively.
The Banking sector had shares worth Kshs 559M transacted which accounted for 19.44% of the week’s traded value, Manufacturing & Allied sector represented 4.31%, and Safaricom with shares worth Kshs 2Bn transacted, contributed 73.39%.
Top Gainers and Losers in the Equities Markets
| Top Gainers | W-o-W |
|---|---|
| Transcentury | 10.24% |
| Crown Paints | 9.07% |
| BK Group | 7.14% |
| BOC Kenya | 3.68% |
| Sanlam Kenya | 3.48% |
| Top Losers | W-o-W |
|---|---|
| Nairobi Business Ventures | -15.70% |
| Sameer | -8.19% |
| Nairobi Securities Exchange | -7.69% |
| Standard Group Limited | -7.47% |
| HF Group | -6.82% |
Alternative Investments
| Week Before | Week After | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derivatives Turnover (million) | 3.65 | 5.47 | 50.03% |
| Derivatives Contracts | 54 | 84 | 55.56% |
| I-REIT Turnover (million) | 2.51 | 0.98 | -60.76% |
| I-REIT Total Deals | 52 | 72 | 38.46% |
Global and Regional Markets
| Global Markets | W-o-W |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 0.79% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 1.22% |
| FTSE 100 (FTSE) | 0.85% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 1.12% |
| Shanghai Composite (SSEC) | 0.67% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 0.84% |
| MSCI World Index | 0.69% |
| Continental Markets | W-o-W |
|---|---|
| FTSE ASEA Pan African Index | 0.76% |
| JSE All Share | 2.76% |
| NSE All Share (NGSE) | 1.61% |
| DSEI (Tanzania) | -0.69% |
| ALSIUG (Uganda) | -2.14% |
European stocks closed the week lower, as investors digested data showing slowing jobs growth in the United States and weak German trade data. The volume of German exports fell in August for the first time in 15 months, dropping by 1.2% compared with the 0.5% increase expected, as Europe’s largest economy, and main growth driver, felt the effect of the global supply chain problems.
U.S. stocks ended the week lower after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.
Asia Pacific stocks recorded a mixed performance at the end of the week, with China releasing better-than-expected economic data and concerns about easing of the U.S debt ceiling. People’s Bank of China Governor stated that regulators will continue to curb monopolistic behavior among internet platforms and strengthen consumer and data protection.
On the global commodities markets, Crude Oil WTI closed the week high by 4.57% and the ICE Brent Crude increased by 3.92%. Gold futures prices decreased by 0.06% to settle at $1,757.40.
Week’s Highlights
- The Stanbic Bank’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for the month of September declined to 50.4 from 51.1 in August, signalling reduced business activities due to high fuel costs and increased inflation rates during the month.
- The World Bank projects that Kenya’s economy will grow by 5% in 2021, a revised figure from 4.5% projected in June. This is due to reopening of the economy and resumption of various sectors such as construction, education and tourism. Growth in global trade is expected to boost demand for Kenya’s products and consequently result in the country’s economic growth.
- The Kenya Revenue Authority has collected Sh1.995 billion in the nine months to September from the three-year tax amnesty programme that grants businesses and individuals relief on penalties for unpaid taxes. The programme was aimed at bringing more individuals and firms into the tax bracket in the war against tax evasion.
- Payroll taxes in the third quarter of the year surpassed the Treasury’s target by 50.63% to Kshs 107.79 billion, signalling improved economic recovery and growth in jobs. This came on the back of expansion of top tax rate band to apply from a salary of Kshs 32,333 compared to the previous amount of Kshs 47,057.
- Representatives from the European Central Bank and regulators from leading countries including USA and UK met to discuss on the potential of creating an operating manual for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This is aimed at striking a balance between keeping up with cryptocurrencies and concerns that the new technology could upend commercial lenders.
- Shelter Afrique has entered a deal with the Cameroon government to set up an Industrial Housing Corporation (IHC), a prefab factory, to provide low-cost construction materials for construction of affordable housing at a cost of Kshs 1.65 billion. Shelter Afrique will own 51% stake while the Cameroon government owns 49%.
- MTN Uganda, a subsidiary of the South African MTN Group, intends to sell a fifth of its stake to Kenyan and other East African investors through initial public offer (IPO) on the Kampala bourse. The move is aimed at increasing the number of investors at the USE from 40,000 to 200,000 and intends to collect about Kshs 132 billion from the sale. The listing will make MTN Uganda the second publicly traded telecom in East Africa after Safaricom Plc.
- The amount spent on pension payments in Kenya in the first half of the year increased by 26% to Kshs 110.27 billion, the fastest annual growth in four years. This was due to the roll-out of the contributory Public Service Superannuation Scheme at the beginning of the year, where civil servants contribute 7.5% of their take-home pay.
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